Poll Finds Sharp Year-End Boost for Bush
Optimism About Economy, Increased Support for Iraq War Contribute to Spike
By Dan Balz and Richard Morin
Washington Post Staff Writers
Monday, December 22, 2003; 6:30 PM
Growing optimism about the economy and a spike in support for going to war in Iraq have given President Bush a sharp year-end boost in his overall approval ratings, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll, suggesting that the president is in a strong position politically as he looks toward his reelection campaign next year.
The boost for Bush comes after the capture of former Iraqi president Saddam Hussein and a succession of brighter economic indicators that helped to reverse a decline in his ratings that began in the early fall. His overall approval rating stands at 59 percent in the poll, the highest since August, when increased U.S. casualties and terrorist attacks in Iraq led the public to question his policies.
The poll also showed former Vermont governor Howard Dean surging ahead of his rivals in the battle for the Democratic presidential nomination, cementing his status as the party's front-runner a month before the first major contests in Iowa and New Hampshire. But when matched against the president, Dean fares badly, both in a hypothetical trial heat and on who is trusted to handle both national security and domestic issues. Even many Democrats said they still know little about Dean or his views on the issues.
The poll findings show why many Democrats are nervous about Dean as a potential general election candidate against Bush. They also underscore the concern within the party that, because of the heavily front-loaded primary and caucus calendar, a Democratic nominee may effectively be picked before party activists outside a few early states have had a chance to evaluate the candidates and participate in the decision.
The poll also showed greater confidence in Bush's handling of both Iraq and the economy. On Iraq, three in five (60 percent) said they approve of how he is dealing with events there, compared with 48 percent in mid-November, and 59 percent said the war was worth fighting, up six points in a week.
Americans were evenly divided over whether Bush has a clear plan for handling the situation in Iraq (48 percent to 47 percent), but that marks an improvement for Bush after four months of net negative assessments on that question. Nearly seven in 10 want the president to give the United Nations and other countries a larger role in the reconstruction effort in Iraq.
On the economy, a bare majority (51 percent) approves of Bush's performance, the first time he has been above 50 percent since late April. The new poll found that 42 percent of Americans rate the economy as "good" or "excellent," up from 33 percent in late October. The percentage who rate the economy as "not so good" or "poor" (57 percent) is the lowest since just before the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001.
By almost 4 to 1, more Americans say they expect their family financial situation to improve over the next year than said it would deteriorate.
The public has a more negative view of Bush's handling of key domestic issues. Despite the passage of legislation that adds a prescription drug benefit to Medicare, just 36 percent approve of how he has dealt with that issue. His rating on education (47 percent) is the lowest of his presidency and the first time he has dipped below majority support. Bush's ratings on the federal deficit and the cost and availability of health insurance improved somewhat but remain negative overall.
Nor does Bush rate highly on one of his central campaign promises from 2000: bringing needed change to Washington. The Post-ABC News poll shows a country sharply divided on that issue, and more so than it was at this time last year. Despite that assessment, a solid majority (58 percent) said Bush has been more of a uniter than a divider at home, but on his impact on the country's image abroad, almost three in five say things have deteriorated during his presidency.
Bush and many of his key policies continue to divide Americans deeply along party lines. Nine in 10 Republicans approve of the job Bush is doing as president -- a view shared by one out of three Democrats. Six in 10 political independents believe Bush is doing a good job, a significant improvement since mid-October when fewer than half of these swing voters had a favorable view of the president's performance.
Similarly, nearly nine in 10 Republicans say Bush is doing a good job managing the economy and handling the situation in Iraq while lop-sided majorities of Democrats disagree.
The higher approval ratings on Iraq and the economy help to make Bush a stronger candidate for reelection. Asked whether they would vote for Bush or an unnamed Democratic presidential nominee in 2004, 50 percent of those surveyed said Bush while 41 percent said the Democrat. Throughout the fall the public was either evenly divided on that question or tilted narrowly toward the Democrat.
In the Democratic race, the poll shows dramatic gains for Dean in a month that included the endorsement of former vice president Al Gore and a growing list of Democratic elected officials and the continuation of his aggressive, grassroots campaign operation.
Asked to choose among the nine candidates for the Democratic nomination, 31 percent of registered Democrats said they favored Dean, up from 20 percent a week ago and up from 15 percent in October. No other Democrat reached double digits.
Although he is known as the candidate of the antiwar Democrats, Dean draws roughly equal support from Democrats who believe that the war in Iraq was not worth the cost and from those who believe it was, another sign of his broadening support. A solid majority (60 percent) of Democrats continue to say they believe the United States should not have gone to war.
But Dean's strength against his rivals masks how little Democratic voters know about him. More than half of Democrats surveyed said they know "hardly anything" or "nothing" about Dean's experience or leadership capabilities and his positions on the issues.
The Post-ABC poll suggests that Dean's recent surge has come disproportionately from Democrats who do not closely identify with their party. In mid-October, Dean claimed the support of one in six Democratic-leaning independents and an equal proportion of party rank-and-file. Today, he gets significantly more support from independent Democrats (35 percent) than he does from party faithful (26 percent).
But as a general election candidate, Dean starts well behind Bush in the public's estimation. In an early test of strength, 55 percent of those surveyed said that if the election were held today, they would vote to reelect the president and just 37 percent saying they would favor Dean. No other Democrat was tested against Bush in the Post-ABC News poll.
Dean's Democratic rivals have warned that the former governor's lack of foreign policy experience would hurt him in a general election against Bush, and when asked in the poll whether they trusted the president or Dean more to handle national security and the war on terrorism, 67 percent of the respondents said Bush and 21 percent Dean. Even on the kind of domestic issues that normally favor Democrats, such as Social Security, health care and the education, Bush bests Dean by 50 percent to 39 percent. |
