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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis
SOXX 309.40+1.0%Dec 5 4:00 PM EST
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To: Return to Sender who wrote (12805)12/23/2003 6:27:09 PM
From: The Ox  Read Replies (2) of 95531
 
Slightly OT:
My view is that it's still too early to be shifting focus from tech into consumer staples. There's a good chance that the US economy's rebound will be slow, if the FED manages the money supply and interest rates properly. This should leave us plenty of time to hang on to the early recovery hot sectors like techs, basic materials and energy (I especially like the semis at this stage). After being gutted in 2002, independent power producers have done extremely well as a group and I think they should continue to perform well in 2004 (they should run until interest rates rise substantially-since they are heavy debt laden companies which benefit from lower rates). There is a good IPP thread on SI where you can see the model portfolio is up about 70% this year, even with Mirant's implosion dragging down the ytd performance.

I'm not trying to discourage anyone from picking through the consumer staples sector to find potential candidates but I think it's too early in the recovery cycle to be shifting focus from the techs+materials+energy. Gold, oil and NG could continue to rise if the dollar declines further, which I'm pretty sure it will do until the FED changes their bias to a tightening stance.
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