The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory

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To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (3852)	12/24/2003 4:04:04 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (2) of 110194

We are not that far apart. I think long rates go up, not because of inflation but because of credit risk, widening spreads etc. That said, I am very open to the possibility of another blowoff top in treasuries. As for FED Funds, my position is clear: rates are simply not going up, or will go up far slower than the markets have priced in. If you differ from that view we differ big time, if not our difference on treasuries and long term rates is one of timing. Madness can last a lot longer than anyone thinks IMO. If the US economy goes to hell, short term interest rates worldwide can easily start dropping. England, Australia and others have far more room to lower than we do, and if they start lowereing, I sure doubt the FED raises. There are plenty of reasons for short term rates to stay low and we have an idiot at the helm that will do just that. M

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