Bush Immigration Plan Hailed
Some Mexicans Fear Proposal Is Tactic for '04 Campaign
By Kevin Sullivan
Washington Post Foreign Service
Thursday, December 25, 2003; Page A20
MEXICO CITY, Dec. 24 -- Mexicans reacted with cautious optimism Wednesday to reports that President Bush planned to propose immigration reforms more than two years after the United States shelved the issue -- Mexico's top priority -- to focus on combating terrorism.
Analysts said they worried that Bush's plan, which officials said Bush would present before he traveled to Mexico in mid-January for a hemispheric summit and private talks with President Vicente Fox, could be little more than a campaign tactic in the election year.
But whatever the motivation, many also said they hoped Bush's interest in Mexico and immigration reform were genuine and that relations that had soured over Mexican opposition to the war in Iraq were on the rebound.
"This could be a very risky Christmas present for President Fox," said Rafael Fernandez de Castro, one of Mexico's leading international relations specialists. "This is very welcome news. But I am worried that we could end up getting more security on the border without more legal channels for workers to go to the United States."
Republican Party officials said Tuesday that Bush planned to propose a program that would make it easier for immigrants to work legally in the United States, while at the same time stepping up security and enforcement along the 2,000-mile U.S.-Mexico border.
They said the plan would include a new program of temporary work visas, as well as an effort to grant legal status to some of the immigrants already in the United States. Most government and private studies estimate that at least 8 million immigrants live in the country illegally, more than half of whom are Mexican.
"To do immigration reform, he is going to need Congress and it's going to be a tough battle in an election year," Fernandez de Castro said, noting that since the terror attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, U.S. politicians have been more interested in closing borders than opening them. "But in 2000, the Republicans lost a lot of votes by keeping their mouths shut on migration. They won't make that mistake again."
Political analyst Gabriel Guerra called Bush's plan "very impressive if it's really half of what they say it is.
"We have to wait and see what all the qualifications are, and how they respond to all the reactions to this trial balloon," Guerra said. "I don't see this as something feasible to get through Congress before the election."
Immigration reform was the talk of Mexico three years ago, when Bush and Fox took office within a month of each other, and Bush's first foreign trip was to Fox's ranch in February 2001. Both men portrayed themselves as common-sense ranchers who wanted to improve the deadly situation along their shared border. An estimated 300,000 to 400,000 Mexicans every year cross illegally into the United States looking for work. Thousands have died trying, often by drowning or from exposure in the deserts and mountains in their path.
For months after that initial meeting, officials in both governments worked toward a scheme that would have created mechanisms to make immigration, in Bush's words, more "safe, orderly and legal." Mexicans were excited that an issue that affects millions of families seemed to be getting personal attention from a U.S. president.
But by the time Fox made a state visit to Washington in early September 2001, it was clear that opposition in Congress meant there would be no immediate breakthroughs. A week later, terrorists attacked New York and the Pentagon, and immigration and Mexico dropped off Bush's list of priorities.
Then Fox's vocal opposition to using military force in Iraq, and his refusal to vote with the United States at the U.N. Security Council, sent relations into a deep freeze. Fox and Bush seemed to begin repairing the damage when they met in Thailand at a meeting of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in October.
Guerra said he saw the reported immigration plan as "a domestic political initiative. It's not being done to try to salvage the relationship with Fox and become good buddies again."
"Of course this is all political; he's trying to appeal to the Hispanic vote, two-thirds of which is Democratic," said Rossana Fuentes, managing editor of the Spanish-language edition of Foreign Affairs magazine.
Fuentes said the Mexican government should take a pragmatic, realistic approach to Bush's proposals. She said Mexican officials should insist that the United States also contribute development money to Mexico to help alleviate the poverty and joblessness that leads to mass illegal immigration.
"Then we will have a safer continent," she said. "It's in both countries' interest to develop Mexico."
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