Hussein's Capture Not Likely to Harm Al Qaeda
Experts Say Terrorist Operation May Be More Likely to Prove Its Relevance
By Dana Priest
Washington Post Staff Writer
Friday, December 26, 2003; Page A23
President Bush has described the Dec. 13 capture of Saddam Hussein as a victory for the "war on terror," saying that Iraq represented "a visible front" in that war, like Afghanistan, the Philippines and other unnamed countries where U.S. commando teams have been secretly hunting al Qaeda and its affiliates.
But the prevailing view among many U.S. intelligence agencies and terrorism experts is that Hussein's capture, and indeed the U.S. war in Iraq, will have little discernible short-term impact on the web of al Qaeda-affiliated organizations that most threaten the United States and U.S. interests abroad.
Some terrorism experts, including a few favored by the Bush administration, view Iraq as a key al Qaeda supporter and believe Hussein's capture serves as a deterrent for other terrorist organizations. The more common view, however, is that there was never a strong link or even an ideological bond between Hussein's government and Osama bin Laden's terrorist network, and that the capture could well push al Qaeda to prove it is still relevant.
Al Qaeda "did not consider Saddam a friend, but an enemy, a ruler who did not establish true Islam as a state religion," one of the Pentagon's consultants on terrorism, Michael Pillsbury, has told associates. Bin Laden's capture "will be 10 times more important to reduced recruitment rates of hard-core terrorists like the ones who flew the four planes on 9/11."
Terrorism experts and U.S. intelligence officials were interviewed before the terrorism threat level was elevated on Sunday. Two officials said the view was reinforced recently when intelligence sources were reporting that bin Laden was again in communication with his followers. Those reports, one official said, could not be confirmed.
The view that Hussein's capture will not affect the terrorist threat against Americans and U.S. interests is based on the judgment from many in the intelligence community, shared in classified briefings with senior Bush administration officials and members of Congress, that there is no credible proof that Hussein was supporting, directing or financing bin Laden or al Qaeda.
"The question has been asked a million times at the CIA," said a counterterrorism intelligence analyst. "The bottom line is, there were little probing attempts [between Iraq and al Qaeda], but neither side saw it in their interest to do anything together."
A defense official with access to daily terrorism reports and analysis said: "It ain't going to change their operations."
Another senior administration seemed baffled by the question itself. "The war on terrorism? Gosh, it's not likely. He's not a poster child for terrorists, unless you believe the Lauri Mylroies of the world."
Mylroie, a longtime Iraq expert and author whose analysis is favored by Deputy Defense Secretary Paul D. Wolfowitz, believes Iraq "is a very central part of the war on terrorism. I believe Iraqi intelligence was involved in 9/11, and you have to mop up all Iraqi intelligence," including Hussein. "The key issue is the infrastructure of skill and expertise is based on Iraqi intelligence."
Some experts believe Hussein's capture could serve as a deterrent for heads of state and individuals who have supported terrorist organizations in the past.
"The only impact it has is that it demonstrates we are capable of capturing high-value targets," said Matthew Levitt, a former FBI terrorism expert. "Every victory is demoralizing to the enemy."
Hussein's capture, said Rep. Jane Harman (Calif.), ranking Democrat on the House intelligence committee, will serve as a notice to other leaders in the region, namely those in Iran and Syria, that "they may be next. Those leaders who are supporting terrorist networks may cut back."
But most others said they believe that al Qaeda will survive Hussein's capture largely unaffected.
"If you believe Iraq is the root of all evil, then yes, you would believe that Saddam's capture has struck a blow," said Steven Simon, a terrorism expert at the Rand Corp., a think tank based in Santa Monica, Calif. "If it's your view that global terrorism originated elsewhere and has metastasized and spread worldwide," then no, there would be no effect.
"Al Qaeda planning and operations will continue unless other factors impede them," said Rand Beers, a former counterterrorism expert with the National Security Council and now an adviser to Sen. John F. Kerry (Mass.), who is seeking the Democratic presidential nomination. "In fact, I presume that al Qaeda will now want to prove its independence from Saddam Hussein and its continued vibrancy by conducting more operations." |
