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Technology Stocks : WDC/Sandisk Corporation
WDC 200.46+6.8%Jan 9 9:30 AM EST

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To: Ausdauer who wrote (24434)12/26/2003 2:22:44 PM
From: slacker711  Read Replies (1) of 60323
 
there is the rub. I think that as handsets become more and more feature rich there will be a greater cost to the user. Standard contracts are now about 2 years
in order to qualify for a free phone. Given the limited consumer loyalty in the cellphone arena

you can see why service providers won't be giving away $400 cellphones.


Japan probably has the highest level of subsidies in the world. The SH505iS came out on December 12th, and I can pretty much guarantee that it will be available for free with a contract by June. The pattern is slower for the rest of the world, but I would generally say that a handset that debuts for a $400 retail price can be had for under a $100 nine-twelve months later.

I would guess that a 1 megapixel (CMOS) camera phone will be available worldwide for less than a $100 by next Christmas. It could move a little faster than that, but it depends on the availability of lenses/sensors.

In any case, I think we should have confirmation one way or another on whether cell phones will drive mini SD demand by the April earnings. If it hasnt happened by then, I think I will have to change my mind on cameras driving external storage for cell phones.

Slacker
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