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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory

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To: MulhollandDrive who wrote (3892)	12/26/2003 3:49:50 PM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu	Read Replies (1) of 110194

It is amazing how some people are locking themselves in some theories and ignoring the dynamics that modernization and with it the shrinking of business cycle brings. the velocity of money and raw material to finished goods has accelerated substantially as the useful life of various widgets we use from clothing to transportation to homes. When the original K cycle theory was back tested everything was moving at a much more slower pace and aside from that the world was not filled with CB's to distort the monetary world. At that time we did not have "just in time" supplies and the manufacturer in China did not receive "real time" order adjustments from the retail sector like today Wal-Mart or Kaufhause etc. The only factor that remained the same is the generation gap and even longevity of human life changed. IMHO the K cycle needs some tinkering to adjust to modern times. It is very nice to build "chart fitting" theories but they not always work. Once a theory is widely known it rarely works more so when there are efforts to avoid the negative results of that theory

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