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Strategies & Market Trends : Precious Metals mutual funds (gold, silver, PGMs)
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To: Dan P who wrote (825)12/26/2003 10:12:37 PM
From: Larry S.  Read Replies (1) of 972
 
Dan, et al,

First, Happy Holidays to all!!!!!!!

Yes Dan, it looks like PM stocks are in, or were in, a correction. I should say that I hope it is/was only a correction. However, there was an Article in this past week's Barron's that supports my view that it is/was only a correction. It argues that the move in commodities, including gold, was more than a reaction to the lower dollar. It sees the growth in China and India as a major factor and one that will continue. I would add that I don't see anything happening to give strength to the dollar; so the move should continue and probably for several years.

The Commodities Corner in this past Week's Barron's was a summary of the rise in the commodities and painted a less detailed but similar picture.

The lease rate action for gold continues to be saying less and less to me. It is only clear that, because the rate is so low, CBs continue to assure an adequate supply and that demand is limited.

The GMI/POG ratio:

On 12/18, the Barron's GMI was 686.28 down slightly from the previous week's 699.50. With the POG up at 409.75(12/19) the ratio was down at 1.68.

The action of the ratio the past few weeks supports the view that we have had a correction only and that the bull will continue.

The ratio a years ago was 1.37.

Larry
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