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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory
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To: mishedlo who wrote (3929)12/27/2003 12:49:29 PM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu  Read Replies (1) of 110194
 
Not exactly a science nor there is a real 60 year cycle

Kondratieff himself defined two complete cycles and a half of the next cycle. The first cycle was from 1789 to 1849. The second was from 1849 to 1896. The third cycle, which Kondratieff partly identified (before Stalin put him away) ran from 1896-1949.

Evaluating 3 periods resulted in two 60 year cycles .... statistically insignificant to build a theory.

If those 3 periods are the periods Kondratieff basses his theories then the theory by itself it flawed and worthless.
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