"Whats the stock in your portfolio most likely to be a major winner in the next 12 months (though it may have the kind of risk where you wouldn't make it a big position), and second what is the stock you'd put 25% of your portfolio into if you had to pick one?"
Interesting questions, Jim. I note that neither requires the pick to be a "value" stock; the first one requires the stock to be already owned; the second has no time frame, or performance spec.
The stock I own that I think most likely to double in the next year is IMGG. The stock I have 25% in is FARO. I recommended it here at $2+ nine months ago. I consider it the "gorilla" in its growing niche. However, I couldn't recommend buying it above $20, although there is a reasonable shot at near $40 next year, and $50-100 in 3 years.
My outlook is colored by the CAPEX comment in the following link:
biz.yahoo.com
I am taking that comment at face value. If there is a major 2004 CAPEX tax break applying to all purchases from the smallest to the largest company, any company run with half a brain (and profitable, I presume) will be planning now to push a load of 2005 CAPEX into 2004 - and related stocks should have great years. Therefore, you should expect a "hole" in 2005 CAPEX no matter who gets elected.
This could end up being like Y2K in 1999. stealing from future periods. If so, you want to get out of any CAPEX sensitive stocks in 2004, and probably the whole market as well - as 2005 might be rather unpleasant. |
