SI
SI
discoversearch

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor.  We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community.  If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.
Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  
To: Uncle Frank who started this subject12/27/2003 8:18:41 PM
From: Brendan W  Read Replies (1) of 54805
 
What does the thread think of EBAY's gorilla characteristics? I just took a starter position in it at 62 times 2004 earnings and 14 times 2004 sales. This happened after listening to Bill Miller and Robert Hagstrom of Legg Mason. They precipitated my thinking about who the ten-baggers are most likely to be looking back ten years from now. EBAY is the only company I could think where it seems plausible for this to happen. I can see EBAY taking a significant cut out of global commerce by that time and being valued significantly more than Wal-mart. EBAY has a $41 billion market cap right now, Walmart $229 billion.

This is the most I've ever paid for a stock. I invested in Microsoft, Intel and Cisco before the book came out with PE's in the teens. The reason for my change is that I think the market's self-correction may not again allow the emerging gorillas to become as cheap as they were in the early 90s. I made so much money off the pre-gorilla game gorillas I'm trying to find a way back in. The candidates put forward on this thread (qualcomm, aol, seibel, cree, network appliance) never rang true to me like Microsoft. BEA Systems and ARM Holdings are more interesting but I don't know they've delivered the revenue growth recently.

I don't remember the book all that well. I have no idea what EBAY's technology is (I would like to, though). I don't really care that it may not be a tech company whatever that means. I just intuit that EBAY may have a defensible moat in a very important, growing business.

EBAY's revenue has compounded at about 70 percent over the last three years. The market is only expecting 38% revenue growth for 2004 over 2003.

Part of my interest in EBAY is based on personal disappointing experience trying to sell a washer/dryer set and trying to sell moving boxes. I did not get much interest (despite I think a compelling offering which the eventual washer/dryer buyer called a great deal - duh) and I saw little market depth in my region (Colorado) so I'm positing that EBAY is actually immature even in the United States and its true potential is not understood.

I can't articulate any network effects or other gorilla characteristics for EBAY or how one might understand EBAY from a technology adoption viewpoint. I do know about markets' inherent tendency to centralize to EBAY's benefit and the power of mindshare/branding.

I'm hoping others might be able to add to understanding whether there is something to EBAY that will eventually lead it to be called a gorilla by the gorilla-gamers.
Report TOU ViolationShare This Post
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  

HomeMailHotSubjectMarksPeopleMarksKeepersSettings
Terms Of UseContact UsCopyright/IP PolicyPrivacy PolicyAbout UsFAQAdvertise on SI
© 2025 Knight Sac Media.  Data provided by Twelve Data, Alpha Vantage, and CityFALCON News