PRESIDENT GEORGE W. BUSH Message Board

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Politics : PRESIDENT GEORGE W. BUSH

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To: Kenneth E. Phillipps who wrote (516672)	12/29/2003 9:53:35 AM
From: Kenneth E. Phillipps	Read Replies (1) of 769670

`Bill Will Come Due' The confidence in the U.S. contrasts with forecasts of a year ago, when some economists feared that growth would be blunted by soaring oil prices, the Iraq war and excess capacity. Economists such as Stephen S. Roach, chief economist for Morgan Stanley & Co., say U.S. financial markets may sour on record budget and current account deficits, sending the dollar down and prompting the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates. That would depress stock prices and slow growth. ``The bill will come due at some point next year,'' Roach said in a Dec. 9 televised interview with Bloomberg News. ``There's a good chance of a payback at some point by the middle of next year.'' David Malpass, chief global economist for Bear Stearns & Co., said the dollar's decline may revive inflation and threaten the recovery. The currency's value has fallen about 11 percent against those of the U.S.'s trading partners in the past 23 months. Still, those views are in the minority. The U.S. probably grew by 3.1 percent in 2003 after expanding at an 8.2 percent annual rate in the third quarter, which was the strongest growth since the last three months of 1983, the government says. bloomberg.com

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