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Pastimes : SARS - what next?

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To: Maurice Winn who wrote (812)12/29/2003 10:38:34 AM
From: Henry Niman   of 1070
 
The report in today's WSJ that the current Guangzhou case was a suspect SARS case in March, points to the importance of reliable data from the first outbreak, which unfortunately has been subject to significant manipulation (like the 36 deaths in Taiwan who were SARS CoV positive but were removed from the Taiwan SARS total because they were said to have had underlying disease - which was not fully supported by Taiwan's own web site, yet have been removed from the WHO totals).

However, science can overcome these manipulations with sequence data. The sequences out of Guangzhou were from some early (late Jan/ early Feb cases) and this data can shed some light on the origin of the current infection. If it matches the earlier sequences (heavily mutated with 29 nt deletion), then the chance that the virus persisted at a low level in this patient is increased.

The reported rising antibody titer would indicate that the current infection is recent.
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