Thanks for linking Doran's article, which I should have done earlier for the folks who don't get the hard copy of Foreign Affairs. An incisive commentary that brings a lot to the subject.
The struggle between the reformists and the fundamentalists in SA will be, in my opinion, one of the defining global struggles of the next five or so years. Doran did a great job. I can't say who'll win, but these are the factors we need to look at:
1.- The Royals' debauchery and corruption, hated by the Islamists.
2.- The increasing inability of the Saudis to pay their debt, grow their economy, and provide the kind of co-opting social welfare that has kept the Kingdom in a more or less peaceful state.
3.- The fragility of the Saudi oil infrastructure.
4.- Bin Laden's popularity among all strata [couldn't help the geological analogy] of Saudi society.
5.- The age and health of the top Royals.
6.- King Fahd's predilection for one of the younger nutballs based on a soothsayer's say-so.
Allied against this are the following factors:
1.- The Royals' ruthless protection of their position and privilege; it might unite the various Royal factions in the face of a serious challenge.
2.- The increasing strength of the reformist factions. Abdullah is Crown Prince, a fact that probably--I emphasize probably since the SA Kingdom is sui generis--should give him some advantage.
3.- Western support for the reformists, admittedly not a huge factor.
The more I consider Doran's article and my own thinking, the more pessimistic I become about reform in SA. The analogy to 1970s Iran seems well-founded.
Perhaps there is a historical process at work involving the evolution of tribal societies that are suddenly showered with great wealth, mis-use it, then are challenged by those who want the "old ways" to prevail. The conservatives seem generally to get the upper hand, then reform takes place slowly in fits and starts. This reform is appropriate to the particular society, as present-day Iran seems to show. The unfortunate thing is that the present struggle between the reformist and the conservatives in SA will affect the rest of the globe in a very negative way.
C2@pessimist.com |
