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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis
SOXX 314.52-0.6%Dec 11 4:00 PM EST
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To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (12846)12/29/2003 5:47:01 PM
From: Return to Sender  Read Replies (1) of 95572
 
Don, the market rallies have been coming earlier and earlier in advance of actual quarterly earnings throughout the market advance over the last 9 months or more.

I have read that the so called Santa Claus rally generally continues into the first couple of trading sessions of January. This could easily happen again this year.

But let me remind everyone that the put to call ratio has now put in two very low closes in a row.

This is highly unusual and very bearish.

In addition the TRIN readings are also very low.

The low close today only increases the risk of selling in the market when added to the already low numbers generated these last couple of weeks.

The SOX is now being dragged higher by the broader market. We all know that most semiconductor and semi equipment stocks will make their numbers this quarter. My question is simply how much do these companies have to beat expectations to continue to advance beyond recent highs?

How good will outlooks need to be?

I think it's going to be tough to expect the next 2 to 3 weeks to be strong. I expect to see some selling beginning tomorrow morning. Another run to test the new highs by the end of the week and then the next week or so could be rough when the big boys lock in profits.

Then perhaps after we sell off enough we rally some more but we will need to see a lot of volume to mop up the shares that are going to be dumped.

JMHO, RtS
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