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Strategies & Market Trends : Precious Metals mutual funds (gold, silver, PGMs)

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To: Larry S. who wrote (827)12/29/2003 10:35:58 PM
From: Larry S.  Read Replies (1) of 972
 
Dan, et al,

Happy Holidays to all!!!!!!!

Barron's Commodities Corner was devoted to a general discussion of what commodities should be expected to do during 2004. Bullish and Bearish views were presented with nothing new in the bullish view. However, for a bearish view of gold an economist that believes the dollar will gain strength in 2004 was quoted. His comments seemed more bullish on the economy than Epstein, while the bear seem to share Abelson's view. It was suggested that copper would be the big winner.

PMs were mentioned in an interview with a UK Hedge Fund Manger who is very bearish. He is very bullish on PMs, particularly gold.

I have been thinking more about the action of lease rates. It occur I have missed the obvious. While the day-to-day move in the rates do not support the view that leased gold is being used to cap the of POG. The fact that they are holding at a very low level says clearly that there is limited demand and a very adequate supply. This seems to me to support the view that BBs have given up the use of leased gold to protect their short positions. If true, we could see a major move in the POG soon.

The GMI/POG ratio:

On 12/24, the Barron's GMI was 675.82 down from the previous week's 686.28. With the POG up at 409.25(12/23) the ratio was down at 1.65.

The action of the ratio this week, as with the past few weeks, supports the view that we have had a correction only and that the bull will continue.

The ratio a years ago was 1.45.

Larry
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