Kailish, you are clueless on the USDollar consequences
if the US Economy were in true recovery, then the US$ would be rising, not falling, as was the case in every single previous cycle
if the US Economy were not facing imminent price inflation, then GOLD would be falling, not rising, as was the case with every single previous cycle
sorry, but you are clearly a cheerleader and not a student of economics or history
a USDollar decline gaurantees a stalled brief recovery
a US$ decline gaurantees higher price inflation very soon
we now have dangerous levels of capital flight and poor capital flows
I doubt you even know what those are !!!
CAN YOU SAY "ARGENTINE CREDIT CRUNCH" ???
amazing how clowns still maintain US$ decline is good for US corporations and our economy
simply amazing, not a wash at all
if all exporting firms triple their exports, that will reduce the incredibly dangerous and huge trade gap by perhaps 15-20%
all Federal Reserve stimulus now is encouraging new credit extension by people who cannot afford to go deeper
the entire naive nation still believes consumption will enable the recovery to take root
it will not
SAVINGS and investment will, after the US$ declines another 50% from here
next on tap is price inflation from Asian sources
and reduced Asian supply for our credit markets
translation to the clueless: higher rates which we cannot handle
ARE YOU AWARE THAT THE INCREASE IN MONEY SUPPLY BY OUR FED ROUGHLY EQUALS THE EXTENSION TO DEBT LEVELS FOR HOUSEHOLDS, WHICH ROUGHLY EQUALS THE INCREASE IN THE CHINESE TRADE SURPLUS ???
I did not think so
new money is going straight to debt for the purchase of foreign made products
that is the phenomenon behind job leakage
have you noticed that jobs are not in any growth stage?
our Fed is not stimulating our economy
it is stimulating and building the Asian economies, most notably China
that is why jobs are not increasing in the US Economy
unless you count those 50,000 weekly new jobs that are assumed by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which dont exist, but are assumed anyway, since they con idiots among the US J6P community
last April they eliminated all 400,000 jobs (you missed that)
next April they will eliminate all 400,000 new jobs (you will miss that also)
what most economists and market pundits overlook is that the US Economy is predominantly a financial speculation entity, with the financial sector dominating, with asset inflation supporting most spending, with the real economy shrinking constantly, and the whole enchilada underpinned by massive debt
$5 BILLION PER DAY OF FOREIGN MONEY IS NEEDED TO KEEP THINGS GOING
for trade gap fill
for federal deficit finance
for mortgage supply
currency traders are a very smart bunch
they dont buy the nonsense about exporter advantage and multinational exchange rate benefits
they point to low competitive interest rates
and to yawning, not improving trade gaps
and to expanding federal deficits
the entire US economic system will continue to function ONLY IF foreign capital continues to flow in and be attracted to flow in
the critical factors are all unfavorable
and our crippled US$ currency will go a long long way down, far below what most believe is its equilibrium point
currencies do that, and stay 20% below that figure for a good 2-3 years longer than experts anticipate
SO THE USDOLLAR PLUNGES IN SLOW MOTION
by summertime, the panic will have its seeds germinating
maybe by autumn
perhaps not until late in the 2004 year
man oh man, economists and pundits have a lot to learn in the next 18 months
when the monetary crisis unfolds
/ jim |
