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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory
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To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (4153)12/30/2003 11:30:47 AM
From: mishedlo  Read Replies (2) of 110194
 
if the US Economy were in true recovery, then the US$ would be rising, not falling, as was the case in every single previous cycle

This is not really a "recovery" issue but a balance of trade issue and an interest rate issue IMO.

You state the issue correctly here:
$5 BILLION PER DAY OF FOREIGN MONEY IS NEEDED TO KEEP THINGS GOING
for trade gap fill
for federal deficit finance
for mortgage supply

This is a very important factor as well
have you noticed that jobs are not in any growth stage?

In fact it is that latter point that suggest to me we down down in the deflationary spiral like Japan rather that the Argentinian inflationary spiral, or quite possibly some weird worst of both worlds combination of both. At any rate, Greenspan is not going to be successful at inflating this debt away given the piss poor AND STILL deteriating job market that every idiot economist thinks is improving.

Mish
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