MIRACLE OF BAGHDAD
By NILES LATHEM
December 29, 2003 -- WASHINGTON - Startling new Army statistics show that strife-torn Baghdad - considered the most dangerous city in the world - now has a lower murder rate than New York.
The newest numbers, released by the Army's 1st Infantry Division, reveal that over the past three months, murders and other crimes in Baghdad are decreasing dramatically and that in the month of October, there were fewer murders per capita there than the Big Apple, Chicago, Los Angeles and Washington, D.C.
The Bush administration and outside experts are touting these new figures as a sign that, eight months after the fall of Saddam Hussein, major progress is starting to be made in the oft-criticized effort by the United States and coalition partners to restore order and rebuild Iraq.
"If these numbers are accurate, they show that the systems we put in place four months ago to develop a police force based on the principles of a free and democratic society are starting to work," said former New York Police Commissioner Bernard Kerik, who traveled to Iraq to oversee the rebuilding of the police force.
"It shows that the enforcement is working. It shows that the coordination between the Iraqi police and the U.S. military is working. It shows that having an Iraqi face out there standing up is working. The more you stand up, the more these crime numbers are going to go down," Kerik said.
According to the Army, there were 92 murders in Baghdad, a city of 5 million people, in July. The number dropped to 75 in August, 54 in September and 24 in October.
In New York, a city of 8 million people, there were 52 murders in July, 51 in August, 52 in September and 45 in October.
John Lott of the American Enterprise Institute, who recently published an extensive analysis on Iraqi crime figures, says the numbers indicate that Baghdad's murder rate dropped from 19.5 per 100,000 people in July to a rate of five killings per 100,000 people in October.
By contrast, New York's murder rate is seven murders per 100,000 people, Los Angeles' murder rate is 17 per 100,000, and Chicago's is 22, Lott said, citing FBI crime statistics.
The Army also said that the numbers of kidnappings in Baghdad have declined, from 28 in July to 11 in October, and the numbers of aggravated assaults has gone from 135 in July to 40 in October.
But Lott cautions that those numbers may be misleading because not all kidnappings and assaults are reported to police.
The Army's statistics do not take into account "political" attacks on U.S. and coalition personnel by Ba'athist death squads - or the terrorists showing up in Baghdad morgues after having been killed by the U.S. military in those battles.
Experts caution that Iraq's police force is still in the formative stages and it is possible that the Army's statistics might not be as accurate as those reported by police forces in the United States.
Nevertheless, there appears to be good reason for the Bush administration to cheer.
"When you consider that Saddam released thousands of criminals from prisons onto the streets during the war and that his military and security apparatus completely collapsed, the progress has been measurable," Lott said.
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