It is true that MSFT will capture some firewall market share. How much and when is the question? Based on history and the importance that shops place on a stable-rilable-secure firewall, I doubt MSFT firewalls will see strong support from conservative IT shops (both at the small and fortune level) for at least two years from now. The existing install base will be very reluctant to switch from a stable firewall that works fine to a version 1.0 firewall, especially given MSFT's history of buggy 1.0 products. Many new installs will probably tinker with the MS firewall, some will stick with it, and most will opt for a more mature firewall until version 2 or 3 of MSFT's comes out. Then there is also the growing general public concerns about MSFT's intentions on the net (i.e. are they watching me?). For example, when I started browsing the net, I used Netscape. Then, I switched to MSIE because of its free bundling with MS95. IE's credibility has sank as well as MSFT's intentions with IE. Recently, I purchased my 1 year subscription to Netscape communicator for $79 and I'm generally happier with Netscape's browser. I am not anti-MSFT: I love their OSs and databases, but I am simply stating a reality that MSFT must face as they get bigger and bigger with tenticles everywhere. As a former IBMer, I see MSFT starting to get their hands into everything which ultimately hurt IBM (classic example was IBM's entry into copy machines - that venture was a big loss). I could be wrong, but these are the forward thinking statements that I have as an IT professional.
These are all factors that will go into IT descisions where choosing firewall products. Yes, they are or will become a commodity item, but you can be sure that IT folks will still do a lot of R&D in selecting a truly secure, stable product. If Raptor maintains an agressive attitude in producing a MATURE quality secure product at an afordable price, then they will stay in the race with MSFT just as Netscape has done. If they don't, they will probably be consolidated. It would be attractive to potential buyers if Raptor announced a 30 or 60-day try-before-you-buy offering of Eagle. It would defer some revenue, but ultimately create many more buyers and sales. Trust me, once an IT guy installs server-ware like a firewall, if it works the way they expect, then there a lot of resistance to un-installing it after its installed for any reason. |
