Part II:
This Year's Democratic Attacks May Be Next Year's Republican Fodder
In an open letter to the other Democratic campaigns, Dean campaign manager Joe Trippi wrote that the ad represents "the kind of fear mongering attack we've come to expect from Republicans and panders to the worst in voters. I'm writing to call on each one of you to condemn this despicable ad and demand it be pulled from the airwaves."
The ads could end up working counter to their purposes. Voters –- and reporters -– are typically tough on these sorts of ads from third parties and are skeptical of attempts to deny coordination.
"There is a history of activities like this by outside groups," said Fred Wertheimer, president of Democracy 21, a campaign finance watchdog group. "[These sorts of ads] can be a two-edged sword: They can help a candidate they're trying to help, and they can often help a candidate they're trying to hurt. I doubt running ads featuring Osama bin Laden would be considered wise politics by the people these ads are supposed to help."
In a conference call with reporters on Tuesday, Gephardt distanced himself from the organization and the ads -- an important point, given that coordination would be illegal.
"I haven't seen the ads, I have no knowledge of them," he said. "I've had no knowledge of who is doing this or why they're doing it. And, for my part, I wish they would reveal the donors to the organization, whoever they are."
For now, the ads, and the seemingly coordinated efforts of the Washington establishment Democrats to gang up on Dean, have allowed him to perpetuate his outsider status, which seems to appeal to primary voters this year. Polls taken since Hussein's capture have shown Dean slipping some and Lieberman perhaps gaining some. But nothing would suggest at this point that Dean remains anything other than the frontrunner.
Vulnerability, Real and Perceived
Beyond the knee-jerk punditry, no one knows the impact the war or the economy might have on a general election that is still 11 months away. That's what makes this election so interesting. Rarely has an election hinged so clearly on variables that could cut in such dramatically different directions.
Will the capture of Hussein hobble the insurgency or embolden it?
Will the Bush administration be able to extricate itself effectively from Iraq over the next year or will it continue to be hampered by setbacks?
Will the international community coalesce around the rebuilding effort or continue to distance itself, further escalating the costs to Americans?
Will the seemingly resurgent economy create jobs or continue to hemorrhage them?
Bush will be difficult to beat next year, no matter who the Democrats' nominee is. If it is Dean, he will have vulnerabilities, but maybe not the ones on which the media and his opponents have focused. For instance, Dean's rivals pounced on his pronouncement Monday that America was not made any safer by the capture of Hussein. But a new New York Times/CBS poll found that 60 percent of Americans feel the country is as vulnerable to terrorist attack as before Hussein was captured.
The Times/CBS poll also suggests that while Bush got a definitive bump from the Hussein capture, still only 52 percent of Americans approve of his foreign policy (up from 45 percent a week ago) and only 49 percent believe the country is heading in the right direction (up from 39 percent a week ago).
Dean has made seemingly contradictory statements on a number of issues -- from the war, to Social Security, to the death penalty -- that the Bush campaign would surely exploit if he were to become the nominee. Dean's tendency to shoot from the hip has created a long paper trail of exploitable comments. It is here -- rather than his basic opposition to a controversial war -- where Dean could find himself in the most trouble.
Bush was able to overcome the criticism from some of his GOP rivals in 2000 that he lacked gravitas and experience of foreign policy issues. But that was another time (pre-9/11), and Bush had the backing of the party establishment in a way Dean does not.
As Gephardt put it on Tuesday: "I have been saying from the beginning of this campaign that in an age and time of terrorism the American people are not going to leave the president that is in office to go to someone they doubt has the steady hands and the reliable experience to deal with all of these foreign and international challenges that we face."
URL:http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A9525-2003Dec17_2.html |
