Part II:
Parties Spinning the Polls: Who's Right, Who's Wrong?
By Terry M. Neal
washingtonpost.com Staff Writer
Wednesday, November 19, 2003; 12:00 AM
It's one year out from the presidential election and both parties are furiously spinning the polls. Democrats are emphasizing polls they say show signs of increasing weakness in President Bush's reelection effort. Republicans counter that, historically, Bush is in a safe place and that his prospects have dimmed little.
Who's right and who's wrong? The answer, as it often is in Washington, depends on how you look at it.
Polls can be confusing, and results may vary widely based on the way a question is asked. It's also easy to manipulate them for political purposes. For instance, most polls in the past month or so have put the president's job approval rating at between about 48 percent and 57 percent. That's a wide range. The lower number has the president's approval at less than a majority. The higher number has him with a solid majority. Why the difference?
Some polls, including the Washington Post/ABC News poll, give respondents a range of options on job approval questions. The Post/ABC poll asks: Do you strongly approve of the way the president is handling his job? Somewhat approve of it? Strongly disapprove of it? Somewhat disapprove?
Monday, The Post and ABC News released a poll that put the president's approval at 57 percent, up slightly from a late October poll putting his approval at 56 percent.
Not bad, at first blush.
Of the 57 percent of the people who said they approved of the president's job performance, 23 percent said they only "somewhat approved"; the rest of the 57 percent "strongly" approved.
Many polls don't give respondents such nuanced choices. They simply ask whether respondents approve or disapprove of the president's job performance. And in those polls, the president has consistently received a lower score.
For instance, a Gallup poll out this week put his job approval at 50 percent and his disapproval at 47 percent.
Washington Post polling director Richard Morin explains that the higher approval rating in the Post/ABC poll does not necessarily correlate to the number of votes the president would receive if the election were held today.
"There are a number of people who marginally approve of the job [Bush] is doing, but are still undecided about whether they're going to vote for him again," he said.
Adding to the confusion are polls such as the independent Zogby International poll. The president has consistently fared worse in these polls, which ask people to rate the president's performance as excellent, good, fair or poor. Excellent and good are considered positive -- and Bush received 48 percent in the latest poll. Fair and poor are considered negative -- and Bush received 52 percent in the latest poll.
Can You Approve of a Guy, But Not Re-elect Him?
Another important number pollsters look at is the "re-elect" number -- the number of people who say they would vote for the president if the election were held today. This number, more than any other, could signal trouble for the president. In recent polls, the president's job approval rating has been higher -- sometimes significantly higher -- than his re-elect number.
URL:http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A58916-2003Nov18.html |
