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Parties Spinning the Polls: Who's Right, Who's Wrong?
For instance, in the most recent Newsweek poll, conducted earlier this month, registered voters were asked: "In general, would you like to see George W. Bush re-elected to another term as president or not?" Forty-four percent said yes and 50 percent said no. Yet no major poll has ever put job approval at 44 percent or below.
"We've always said that we expect this to be a very close, very contested election," said Bush campaign spokesman Terry Holt. "But the president has some specific strengths: He's viewed as a leader, as someone who cares about the American people, and as someone who cares about the economy and the war on terror .... Whoever the Democratic nominee is, he's already locked himself into a high-tax, anti-war mode."
Holt raises a legitimate issue. The 2004 election will not just be about Bush's popularity in a vacuum. It will also be about the alternative voters have to consider. Polls asking people whether they would vote for Bush or a "Democrat" next year are about even. In an NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll released this week, 43 percent said Bush while 40 percent said a Democrat.
But the difference seems to grow in Bush's favor when you compare him to individual candidates. For instance, in the Post/ABC poll from a couple weeks ago, Bush led individual Democrats from 6 to 15 percent when matched up in hypothetical contests. He does his worst against Sen. John F. Kerry (D-Mass.), whom he beats 50 percent to 44 percent (Washington Post-ABC News Poll, Sunday, November 2, 2003). The biggest advantage Bush held over his Democratic rivals was between Bush and Dean, with Bush up 54 percent to 39 percent.
Several pollsters told Talking Points that the gap between a hypothetical Democratic candidate and a real one exists because most of the Democrats are largely unknown, which will change once the primaries and caucuses begin in January. Each of the pollsters and analysts interviewed said they expected the election results to be close to even, as they were in 2000.
"These states that were blue are still blue, and probably bluer than they were before in 2000," said Del Ali, a pollster for independent Research 2000. "The states that were red are still red, and probably redder than they were. It's a divided nation. And if [former Vermont governor] Howard Dean is the nominee, forget this George McGovern stuff, it's a competitive race."
Inside the Numbers
Beyond the generic question of the president's job approval, the news isn't good on specific issues. In most polls conducted during the last month or so, the president's job approval rating is below 50 percent on his handling of Iraq, the economy, foreign policy, taxes and the budget deficit. The president continues to carry majority support for his handling of the fight against terrorism, even if increasing numbers of people see Iraq as separate issue.
According to yesterday's Post/ABC poll, 48 percent of voters approved of the handling of Iraq, and 49 percent opposed it. Similarly, 48 percent approved of Bush' handling of the economy, while 48 percent opposed it.
The USA Today/CNN/Gallup poll also notes a precipitous decline in Bush's support among women and independents -- which are important swing groups.
The president, while still strong, is looking more human, with his popularity falling back within the realm of reality and the mainstream media coming increasingly to the conclusion that 2004 will be competitive -- something perhaps more akin to the Bush-Clinton battle in 1992 than the Reagan-Mondale and Clinton-Dole blowouts of 1984 and 1996, respectively.
Third Year Blues
Traditionally, the third year of a president's first term is a tough one. Bush's five predecessors were all within three or four percentage points of Bush's current 50 percent approval rating at the end of their third year, according to a USA Today/CNN/Gallup poll released Monday.
Three of the presidents -- Nixon, Reagan and Clinton -- went on to re-election. Two of them -- Carter and Bush's father -- went on to defeat. Given the disparate fortunes of these men -- not to mention the unpredictability of the current political environment -- it is too early to predict what might happen to Bush given his current poll numbers.
Interestingly, Nixon, Reagan and Clinton had low approval ratings through most of their third years and starting improving around this time going into the election year. The first president Bush was just the opposite -- he had high job approval ratings throughout most of this third year, but began to trend steadily downward around this time at the end of his third year. His job approval went from a high of 89 percent in his third year to a low of 29 percent a few months before the election. He never recovered and lost the election to Bill Clinton.
Will history repeat itself with the son?
Who knows. But most pollsters agree: This remains a 50-50 nation. Next year's election is, at this point, completely up for grabs.
"Here's where we are, close your eyes and imagine 9/11 never happened," said independent pollster John Zogby. "Enron never happened. The California recall never happened. Nothing has happened since Sept. 10, 2001. The president is right back to where he was when he was elected, right back to when he was inaugurated and right back where he was the day before 9/11. We're split down the middle, culturally and politically." |
