Jay, <outside China, I often hear the old biases talking, year after year, with China forever at the precipice (as in the opposite of recovery just around the corner), but otherwise making no intuitive sense.
> Most people's general rule of thinking is that things will stay the same, whereas in fact, Major Paradigm Shift Happens and it is happening right here in Beijing and places north east, as inspected by me. I guess the production rate of concrete is higher within 20 km of me than in any other country. There are concrete trucks going night and day.
There are more cranes in the sky per km2 than there were in Auckland in 1988 during the financial leveraging boom of the 1980s. Here though, there are real economic underpinnings to the construction. Made in China is the major paradigm shift which has happened. The borders are opened at least somewhat and capital has come charging in to a billion people who are ready to put in some effort to improve their lives.
With $1 trillion in trade in 2004 [up from $850 billion or so] and foreign direct investment of some $70 billion, there's serious cash flow fueling the day and night efforts. This doesn't look like a flash in the pan or a hula hoop economy to me. This is for real. 1 billion people turned loose, more or less, and funny flag protecting and hiding ceremonies notwithstanding.
And, it's just getting going.
This is the Amazon River of cash flow! Everyone is down at the river with their buckets, pipes and pumps. They are wanting to irrigate their own little plots. This is elastoquidynamics writ large. I haven't seen anyone messing around with Aztec stuff. Gold has too much inertia for a start, falls out of pockets and gets stolen. The folding stuff is everywhere. When they get going with pixelated money, things will speed up more.
What a party! North San Diego and San Jose in the late 1990s were a bigger party, but this one has just got started.
In two years, the skyline of Beijing will look substantially different from today. They could do with some highway engineers who know how to build road foundations though. A huge new road which is collapsing. I wonder how well the structural engineers have designed and the contractors have built the tall buildings. Construction looks much the same as when I was building scaffolding and pouring concrete in the 1960s and 70s.
Clean air would be good. Improved transport would be good. Superconducting, levitated, linear-motor propelled, electronically controlled, gpsOne managed autotransporters would be great. WiFi and 1xEV-DO with iPAQ would be good.
Okay, outa this disgustingly polluted cybercafe to another clear blue day [apart from foul smog]. No wonder they have sars and they are all coughing, sneezing and hoiking...and spitting... gross....
Mqurice |
