Booms, Busts, and Recoveries Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries

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To: TobagoJack who wrote (44059)	12/30/2003 9:12:34 PM
From: Ramsey Su	Read Replies (2) of 74559

Jay, Stephen Roach of Morgan Stanley sent a team to China about a year or so ago to see for themselves where this growth number came from. He wrote about the experience and was surprised that the Chinese were quite open in giving him, not the BS, but the raw data. The team concluded the numbers were real and if anything, they were on the conservative side. I am not suggesting that the MS team is absolutely flawless but their opinion is at least based on some real due diligence, instead all the random mouthing off we see on cnbc everyday. My opinion of China's growth is slight different. While I have been to China about a dozen times since 1986, I feel like one of the blind guys describing the elephant. One felt the trunk, one felt the leg, one felt the tail ...... China is not only a big country, the gap is huge. So is it meaningful to combine the growth of Shanghai with that of Guizhou province? The growth of China is more like a wild fire that spreads. This growth is real. Now how is the growth financed? That is what led me to question this "bad debt" number. I am not sure if anyone knows the answer. What if China takes a chapter from Greenbubble's book and just print a ton of RMB. Give that to banks and call all the debt to SOEs Federal projects. Bad debt problem gone? Ramsey

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