Yale economics professor, Ray Fair, had the 2000 race as close to even. I see that his 2004 model has George W. Bush winning 58.3% of the vote in November
Presidential Vote Equation--October 31, 2003
The predictions of GROWTH, INFLATION, and GOODNEWS for the previous forecast from the US model (July 31, 2003) were 2.4 percent, 1.8 percent, and 1, respectively. The current predictions from the US model (October 31, 2003) are 2.4 percent, 1.9 percent, and 3. The only significant change concerns the GOODNEWS prediction. The previous quarter (2003:3) turned out to be a good news quarter, and the US model is predicting that the current quarter (2003:4) will also be a good news quarter. Neither of these quarters before was predicted to be a good news quarter. Each good news quarter adds 0.837 percentage points to the incumbent vote share, so two extra good news quarters adds 1.674 percentage points for President Bush. The new economic values give a prediction of 58.3 percent of the two-party vote for President Bush rather than 56.7 percent before. This does not, however, change the main story that the equation has been making from the beginning, namely that President Bush is predicted to win by a sizable margin. The margin is just now even larger than before.
fairmodel.econ.yale.edu |
