If I had to sweet wild ass guess (SWAG) I'd say the "things" that speculators have to own get going on the downside by the last week of January. The more technical indicators that I'm keying on that could come together that will wreck this market:
1. Money flows such as those covered by Trim Tabs (the $50 billion a month supply): new issuances, mutual fund inflows, and the pick up in insider selling again after the reporting season.
trimtabs.com
2. Investor sentiment: already extremely bearish.
sentimentrader.com
3. Another energy price surge from current high $32.50/$6.50 levels.
4. Rates: 10 year back above 4.4%, and/or the 10/2 spread under 225.
bondtalk.com
5. Fed OMO activity. Notice that there is a huge balance now of $43.75 billion. Is that's what necessary now to sustain these markets?
bullandbearwise.com
Should that drop off to a more normal levels under 28-30b, combined with the items above, that would be a "correction" signal. I don't think a normal 5-7% correction is possible now, it will evolve into something much worse.
6 The Charts: A lot of stocks have lower high plateaus, and poor, diverging money flows (classic topping action), or are running to the top of flattening bands with medicore RSIs and MF. That means they are trading on thin air, with marginal buying interest into thin markets.
stockcharts.com[l,a]daclniay[pd20,2!b50][vc60][iUb14!Lc20]&pref=G
stockcharts.com[l,a]daclniay[pd20,2!b50][vc60][iUb14!Lc20]&pref=G
stockcharts.com[l,a]daclniay[pd20,2!b50][vc60][iUb14!Lc20]&pref=G
stockcharts.com[l,a]daclniay[pd20,2!b50][vc60][iUb14!Lc20]&pref=G |
