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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory
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To: yard_man who wrote (4236)12/31/2003 2:33:17 PM
From: mishedlo  Read Replies (2) of 110194
 
Refis Drop
but don't jump to conclusions
from Brian Williams

The Mortgage Bankers index of refinancing applications fell from 1908.3 to 1644.3 last week, while the index of purchase applications fell from 411.6 to 390.3. This puts both series near the bottom of their recent ranges. However, caution should be the word when interpreting these numbers. These drops do not appear to be consistent with what has happened to bond yields. This time of year always plays havoc with weekly series. Last year was especially problematic for these two series, and the seasonal adjustments had to be revised a few weeks later. So, it may make sense not to draw any hard conclusions from the refi data for a few weeks.
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