speaking of hearty laughs, i heard prechter interviewed on the radio today (apparently it was a rebroadcast of a show from monday, ironically the day the naz hit 2k and held it for the first time in what seems like eons)
as anyone would expect, he was ultra bearish...he's been bearish since 1987, so why change now? <g> the thing that was most interesting/comical was that he is also bearish on oil, gold, real estate, the Fed, the economy, inflation (he expects significant deflation), puppy dogs, fun, etc., etc...basically he is bearish on life, it must be awful to be that incredibly negative/cynical...he reminds me of the people who were telling everyone in the summer and fall of 1999 to sell all their stocks, buy some canned food and a generator, and move to a cave in montana <G>
it was amazing to hear him talk about the people who turn bearish at just the wrong time, and then bullish at just the wrong time, selling at the bottom and buying at the top, yet anyone who has followed his advice would so far out of sync with the market that they would have no idea what to do at this point...he actually had the nerve to laugh at the notion of those people, when clearly he should be laughing at himself
his wacko wave theory had wave 1 being down into sometime in early 2002 (before that wasn't it into the 9/11 drop?), but now he says wave 1 ended in oct of 2002, and this is wave 2, and wave 3 will be an even more severe downturn than wave 1, thus the naz, which went from 5100 to 1100, will now go from 2000 to a negative number apparently <g>...or by percentage, it will go to like 300...yeah, probably NOT...of course he still thinks dow sub 4000, but that doesn't make sense either because the dow went from 11500 to 7200, so it would have to go below 2000 to make wave 3 much more pronounced than wave 1
it's all a bunch of gibberish anyway, the interviewer asked him about 1987 to 2000, and he said that while the markets were up (yeah, like up hundreds of %), the "average" stock made 80% of its gains from 1982 to 1987 so basically he didn't really miss that much (HUH????)
asked about the run from 1995 to 2000, which took place after his book came out calling for a top and a massive correction, he said that almost no one actually made any money in that time period....LOL...well i'm glad to be part of almost no one then, as i'm sure many others here are
anyway, i thought that since prechter has been quoted here on occasion as if he is a relevant commentator on the market, i would give people an idea of what HE actually says when asked about the market and his track record....clearly i have little regard for the guy so my opinion is biased, but if someone had come on in sept of last year and tried to defend having been long since the highs of 2000 and having a portfolio then down 75 or 80%, i would have thought him equally comical
if someone is supposedly such a market expert, how can they be so out of touch with reality and so wrong for so long, yet be quoted by so many writers and anal-ysts and bears even to this day? at some point people have to realize the guy is like a broken clock, he's right once in a while but he doesn't even know when that will be
the market will surely correct at some point, perhaps even starting friday as people take some profits now that they don't have to pay the taxes until 2005, but the kind of doom and gloom prechter imagines just doesn't seem to be on the horizon...we are finally creating some jobs, we have low interest rates, we have expanding business spending and continued strong consumer spending, we have an election coming up which is usually a good year for the market, and we have tons of money on the sidelines which can be put to work in the market as people see the 2003 returns they missed and decide to give stocks a try again
happy new year to everyone, here's wishing for another great year in 2004 :)
carl |
