Thoughts on this exercise: looking at my portfolio for a safe pick to propose was fun, revealing, needed, and somewhat quick (I don't have nearly as many stocks as Paul! ;>)
I upgraded my Graham calculations on each stock that has earnings estimates, and feel good overall about my portfolio going into next year. I have some exit strategies for some stocks as they reach my full valuation. Some I may add to or reduce as this exercise pointed out some strong stocks, IMO.
What follows are my "honorable mention" stocks I considered proposing before I decided on WRLD.
Symbol is followed by my percent to fair value calculation, along with any pertinent notes. I'd be happy to share more notes on any of these if anyone's interested.
BEL: 47% undervalued. Already written up. Undiscovered gem. Edit: my largest holding at 12% Enough said; it's only a dirt cleaner. ;>)
WM: 144% Gotta still like WaMu at this level. Nice yield. A strong contender for my "safe" pick but too widely held to double in one year??? Still, a long term hold and one I sleep well over.
CD: 98% undervalued. Rising estimates. I like the diversity of businesses but need to reduce the debt.
finance.yahoo.com
Great 1 yr. chart with steady growth of EPS and moneyflow, while PE is below historic norms:
bigcharts.marketwatch.com
IDR: 115% Only 4 analysts. PE of 16.8 Dale's pick.
JNJ: 69% Too many analysts (22) but continue to think this is the bottom. Great ROE and margins, reasonable yield. Much unloved at this time, and that's appealing to me.
STHLY: 45% Another Dale pick. Only 2 analysts, and with divergent estimates. ROE 24%; ROA 8.1%; growing margins; PE of 13. 2004 Olympics just around the corner; got a cell phone handy in Athens? Looks good with NAIC growth principles:
quicken.com
TYC: 86% Rising estimates. A company on the mend making the needed changes. New board and management team; aggressively about to reduce debt. News snip: "As the Financial Times reported on its Web site Sunday, David FitzPatrick, Tyco's chief financial officer, said the company will focus on three areas for cost cutting, expecting to save $1 billion in purchasing costs, make a $1 billion improvement in working capital, and save another $1 billion through "Six Sigma" efficiency programs in factories. Tyco has formed 58 "subteams" to look for moneysaving synergies across the company's businesses, Fisher said. The businesses include electronic security services, fiber-optic networks, medical products, and industrial valves and controls. When FitzPatrick took over as CFO more than a year ago, each of the more than 2,000 companies acquired by Tyco had a separate balance sheet."
Internal controls and new leadership in place is leading to improved morale (my sense); conclusion of CEO trial will help stock regardless of outcome, IMO, but I hope Koz goes to jail.
I'm guessing most investors are quite wary of TYC, and that's perfect for me! Nice chart, with growing earnings (albeit in the hole a year ago):
bigcharts.marketwatch.com
UTSI: 101%. Rising estimates. 20% growth forecasted. |
