Rivals Hone Their Stop-Dean Strategies
By Jim VandeHei
Washington Post Staff Writer
Friday, January 2, 2004; Page A01
With Howard Dean rolling into the new year with a commanding edge in money and momentum, his rivals for the Democratic presidential nomination are adopting different -- and risky -- strategies to trip up the front-runner and emerge as the leading anti-Dean candidate by early next month.
The strategies range from Rep. Richard A. Gephardt's one-state last stand in Iowa to Sen. Joseph I. Lieberman's rapid-fire attacks on Dean to retired Army Gen. Wesley K. Clark's national campaign on electability. All of them depend on Dean stumbling during the Jan. 19 Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary the following week.
Seventeen days before Iowans cast the first votes of the 2004 campaign, Dean is leading in Iowa and New Hampshire, according to public surveys and private polls, though weeks of relentless attacks from his rivals -- and his own remarks -- have seemed to slow him a bit.
Clark, who entered the race in September, is perhaps best positioned to challenge Dean for two key reasons: his fundraising prowess and military résumé, strategists for several campaigns said. The former supreme commander of NATO, his aides said yesterday, raised between $10.5 million and $11.1 million in the past three months, which coupled with the $3.7 million in federal matching funds wired to the campaigns today is close to Dean's record-setting performance this quarter. Dean, who opted out of the federal financing system, thus forfeiting matching funds, will top $15 million for the period, according to his campaign.
Clark will make his biggest play Jan. 27 in New Hampshire, where he will spend much of the month shooting for third place or better. Clark is skipping Iowa, including the two televised debates in the state, giving him more time in person with voters in New Hampshire and other states. At the same time, he is virtually guaranteeing himself a poor showing in Iowa, allowing the winner there a surge of free media attention leading up to New Hampshire.
Clark is the only candidate moving up in New Hampshire, according to public polls and internal surveys by two rival campaigns, though he trails Dean and Sen. John F. Kerry (Mass.). If Clark can overtake Kerry, the retired general could storm into the seven states holding votes on Feb. 3 with significant momentum. With more money than many of his rivals, Clark is planning a sustained media campaign in South Carolina, Tennessee, North Dakota, New Mexico, Oklahoma and Arizona for four weeks until those states vote, a top adviser said. The campaign is also planning to buy television airtime in Wisconsin and Virginia. Dean is the only other candidate advertising on television in so many states.
Clark, who for the most part has avoided touting detailed policy proposals, plans to continue emphasizing his military résumé and electability but will also introduce on Jan. 5 what aides are billing as the biggest domestic policy initiative of his campaign. Aides would not detail the plan, though they have been promising a major tax reform proposal since the beginning of the campaign.
"If you are sick, hire a doctor; if you have legal trouble, hire a lawyer; and if your country is going in the wrong direction, you need a leader," Clark said in a statement yesterday, signaling his message. Dean is a physician, and Sen. John Edwards (N.C.), the only southerner other than Clark in the race, was a trial lawyer.
Clark, at a New Year's Eve appearance in New Hampshire, said that, after a campaign swing through the South, he has decided to focus more on values.
Unlike many of his rivals, Clark has no immediate plans to go after Dean, a former governor of Vermont. Instead, a top adviser said, the retired general hopes to capitalize on the damage the other Democrats are trying to inflict on the front-runner. But even if Dean can be wounded, party strategists said, Clark still has to overcome his major liability -- his lack of political experience and policy expertise.
Lieberman, Al Gore's running mate in 2000, is taking a drastically different approach: He will campaign as the unabashed Dean critic. The Connecticut senator plans to spend much of January bashing Dean on taxes, national security, personal leadership and other issues, his advisers say. Lieberman, who is skipping the Iowa caucuses, will return to the Hawkeye State for several debates this month, in large part to highlight his fight with Dean over the direction of the Democratic Party. Lieberman is a centrist in the mold of former president Bill Clinton; Dean is promising to change the direction of the party and make it focus more on its liberal base.
Dean "has bad ideas and does want to abandon the Clinton legacy, does want to raise taxes on the middle class and sends a weak national security message," said Brian Hardwick, Lieberman's deputy campaign manager. Lieberman's advisers say this message will hit the airwaves for the first time this month. Their goal is to paint the senator as the clearest alternative to Dean.
Like Clark, Lieberman hopes to make his move in New Hampshire, where he will spend virtually all of January with a third of his staff, which is relocating to the state. From New Hampshire, the senator will "keep the focus on Dean versus Lieberman," one adviser said. With less money than Dean and Clark, Lieberman emphasizes South Carolina, Oklahoma, Arizona and Delaware in his Feb. 3 strategy. If Lieberman fails to finish third or better in New Hampshire, however, it will be hard to sustain his candidacy financially or politically, party strategists said.
Gephardt is planning a much narrower focus: Iowa. The House member from Missouri, who won Iowa in 1988 but ran out of money and dropped out soon after, is spending most of his money and time on stopping Dean there. Polls consistently show Gephardt running close behind Dean there, with Kerry third.
In an interview Wednesday with Washington Post reporters and editors, Gephardt said the first candidate to beat Dean will see a big surge in money and momentum. "As other candidates drop . . . then we're going to be getting lots of money that had heretofore gone to other candidates that we can use to prosecute the rest of the primaries and caucuses," he said.
He will need it. Steve Elmendorf, a top Gephardt adviser, said the campaign is likely to run out of money by Feb. 7 unless an Iowa win opens the floodgates -- which did not happen in 1988. Gephardt, who trails many of his rivals in fundraising, will collect $3.1 million in matching funds today -- enough, aides said, to be competitive in the early contests.
Gephardt has spent little time and money of late in New Hampshire but is planning media buys or campaign stops in South Carolina, North Dakota and Oklahoma to fortify his position for Feb. 3. The former House Democratic leader, a critic of Dean throughout the campaign, is planning to step up his criticism of Dean's record. Unlike Lieberman, Gephardt usually hits Dean from the left, questioning the former governor's commitment to trade restrictions and entitlement programs such as Medicare.
Kerry's campaign has weathered strategic changes, staff firings and fundraising difficulties, but the Massachusetts senator remains the only candidate other than Dean to consistently poll in the top three in Iowa and New Hampshire. But that probably is not good enough. Kerry, who initially portrayed himself as the front-runner in the race, is far behind Dean in neighboring New Hampshire, a must-win state for the senator.
While some Democrats have downgraded Kerry from top-tier status, he is reaching into his personal wealth and betting at least $7 million of his money that he can turn things around. He is laying most of his cash on a two-state strategy, in Iowa and New Hampshire. He has not ruled out putting more of his money into his campaign. Kerry, unlike many rivals, has spent no money on ads outside the first two key states.
"We have seen this as a winnowing process in Iowa and New Hampshire," said Mary Beth Cahill, Kerry's campaign manager. "We are going to concentrate on the game at hand."
Several rival campaigns said Kerry's numbers have eroded in both states. They consider him much less of a threat than they did a few months ago. Even if he fades, Kerry could cause problems for Dean by taking what several Democrats described as an increasingly personal fight with the front-runner to a new level of hostility.
Edwards, with his good looks and centrist views, was once the darling of many Democrats and big donors. Despite outspending his rivals early on, he remains far behind the competition in Iowa and New Hampshire and is financially constrained as 2004 begins. He is hoping to defy history and conventional wisdom by making his break in South Carolina, the top prize for many of the candidates in the Feb. 3 vote. To make that happen, a top adviser said, Edwards must crack the top three in either Iowa or New Hampshire.
Edwards plans to stick to the optimistic, policy-oriented tone that he says is the best way to defeat President Bush but which has failed to excite many grass-roots activists. "There is not a big market for his ideas right now," said Donna L. Brazile, Gore's 2000 campaign manager. The North Carolina senator will fly back and forth between Iowa and New Hampshire throughout the month, and Edwards's aides believe that he, like Clark, could benefit from the attacks others are making against Dean. Edwards is the "optimistic alternative to Dean," said Jennifer Palmeiri, his spokeswoman.
Former senator Carol Moseley Braun (Ill.) and, especially, Rep. Dennis J. Kucinich (Ohio) and Al Sharpton could play the role of spoiler, strategists say. Sharpton has been making a strong showing in polls in South Carolina, where the large black electorate often plays a decisive role in the picking the winner there. And Kucinich, who is sitting on enough money to cause headaches for rivals in key states, could affect the outcome of several races if the margins are close.
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