Cable voIP/NTOP
...We’ve checked the skies and the seas to help us determine how some of the top broadband technology sectors will fare in 2004
“2004 will also provide plenty of upside for “turnkey” VoIP providers such as Net2Phone, which is well positioned to make some serious hay with small- and medium-sized MSOs.”
cedmagazine.com
January 2004
CABLE VoIP
Full sails and speed ahead in ‘04
Circuit-switched technology, at least new cable voice deployments based on it, will all but go the way of the Dodo this year. After enough fits and starts to fill up the Yellow Pages, cable VoIP is set to finally take off in 2004. The technical and operational facets of that business have finally coalesced, and many MSOs will roll it out en masse throughout the year.
That’s partly because consumers (and even some businesses) who have access to broadband can do VoIP with or without the direct help of their cable operators, but cable will only be more than happy to oblige, score some recurring revenue and take a bite out of the incumbent phone company’s hide at the same time.
On the tech side, things appear to have solidified nicely. The beacon of light there is Cox Communications, which tested the VoIP waters during the technology’s rougher days and held for a time that the platform was a bit undercooked. Well, that’s no longer the case. Cox rolled out VoIP commercially in its first market (Roanoke, Va.) late last year. Expect plenty more where that came from in 2004.
Time Warner Cable expects to have it ready to go in every market by the end of the year, thanks to its partnership with Sprint and MCI. We expect all of the top 10 MSOs to have concrete VoIP plans in place by the end of 2004, setting themselves up to push the service aggressively in 2005.
2004 will also provide plenty of upside for “turnkey” VoIP providers such as Net2Phone, which is well positioned to make some serious hay with small- and medium-sized MSOs. Vonage will also continue to score deals throughout the year for operators who want to get into the business very quickly and don’t mind giving up a chunk of that recurring revenue in doing so. By the end of the year, we think two dozen MSOs will have partnered with Vonage.
Plenty will also be said on the regulatory front when it comes to IP telephony. There will be lots of debate and a few wrinkles for services like Vonage to iron out. But we also believe regulators will retain a relatively hands-off stance, allowing the market to develop and evolve on its own without too much interference. |
