DEAN'S BUSH GAP EVAPORATES: TNR
Drudge and the Dean "o-blog" have flagged a new Time/CNN poll (not yet available on either outlet's website) showing Howard Dean trailing George W. Bush by a mere 5 points--51 to 46--in a head-to head matchup. The poll also shows Joe Lieberman trailing Bush by a mere 6 points--52 to 46--Gephardt down 9, Clark and Edwards both down 10, and Kerry down 11.
What these numbers suggest to us is something we've stressed repeatedly this (er, last) year: The country is more polarized than it's been in a long, long time. As a result, any reasonably competent Democratic candidate is probably looking at a floor of 45 percent of the vote.
How else to explain the speed with which Dean appears to have recovered from the nosedive he took in a similar poll taken after Saddam's capture? (A CNN poll conducted between two and three days after the capture showed Dean trailing Bush 59 to 37; Dean had been roughly 5 to 8 points behind Bush for much of the fall.) And how else to explain the fact that while Dean and Lieberman represent the Democratic field's ideological extremes (at least rhetorically; substantively we'd argue that Dean and Lieberman aren't that far apart, with the obvious exception of the war), both appear to match up equally well against Bush. These things only make sense when you realize that the polls aren't picking up Democrats' support for Dean or Lieberman per se. They're picking up the fact that any big-name Democrat will do reasonably well against Bush, and that Dean and Lieberman just happen to be the most recognizable Democrats out there.
Of course, while 45 percent is a nice foundation, it clearly doesn't finish the job. Just ask Michael Dukakis, who, as Al Hunt recently pointed out, also polled in that range but managed to collect a measly 111 electoral votes. |
