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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries
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To: Seeker of Truth who wrote (44232)1/3/2004 6:03:32 PM
From: Night Trader   of 74559
 
Fisher is also still underwater on his bullish call from spring 2002 so he has an axe to grind. He's rather unfair calling Bernstein a permabear as he was correctly bullish up until 1998 I believe when he started warning about bubbles, particularly in Tech stocks. I don't think any of his calls have been proven long term wrong - he's no Abelson.

The private email list I belong to has a very politically savvy contributor who wrote the following today:

"Early word about Bush's State of the Union speech has him setting an agenda that is very favorable for the stock market. Rumors have it that he will talk about an "ownership society" with emphasis on tax breaks directed at saving, investing, health insurance and job training. More importantly, he will propose some sort of private social security account, and probably pay
some lip service towards restraining the budget deficit.

So the likeliest scenario is that a day after Dean wins Iowa, and hours after many pundits have had a chance to talk about how Dean will win the nomination but get beaten in the national election, Bush, who in the eyes of
many is by this point unbeatable, will lay out a rather bullish agenda.

Could we see Mr E's Q4 "Republican takeover" rally move into late January/early February? Of course there are many other forces at work, and if Gephardt wins Iowa it would complicate the situation, but personally I wouldn't want to be short stocks going into that period."
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