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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory

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To: russwinter who wrote (4346)	1/4/2004 10:37:54 AM
From: austrieconomist	Read Replies (2) of 110194

MZM observations. For anyone who wishes to follow my comments scroll to P.4 which discloses a 17 year history of year on year rate of change. research.stlouisfed.org There may be some element of fitting history to support prejudice so the above statistics are simply reported and anyone can frame their own observations. That said, I believe that monetary impact can be discerned in the context of (1) rate of change AND (2) absolute levels. The most abrupt rate of change occurred when the Fed drained reserves from the system in 1987. The crash, however, did not occur until year on year growth fell below 5%. 1994 was a more gradual decline but occurred in the context of less than 5% year on year growth. A poor year for U.S. equities. Year on year growth has begun to decline substantially and has just now fallen below 5% year on year growth. In the nearer term, MZM has actually shrunk at the rate of 8.5% the last three months. research.stlouisfed.org I'm preaching to the choir, I'm sure, but the overvaluation of equities, considered in the context of this monetary climate, cannot continue. No guesses from me as to when, other than soon.

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