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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory

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To: ild who wrote (4363)	1/4/2004 5:11:10 PM
From: russwinter	Read Replies (3) of 110194

Of course I consider BCA conclusions and reference to "old dead bears" quotes from 1956 and 1978 to be bogus, and warranting of a poor score on the debate squad. My rebuttal to them, is to direct you to the following charts (19, 20, 24, 25) at the Hoisington presentation. Then compare current circumstances with the bogus dates (or any date you choose) BCA uses: Message 19632973 And while you're at it, check out the interesting chart 22 on "residential rental vacancy rates". Should dispel all (but the most fuzzy, head in the sand thinkers) from the notion we are in a housing shortage, especially one necessitating record high SF housing starts. Check out the housing starts chart 21 too, in case you were wondering if: 1. there's still any pent up demand left (besides speculation and nutty behavior), or 2. what true housing cycles have looked like in the past half century (before Easy Al decided to try and abolish the cycle that is). The next housing down cycle will truly be one of the main daggers that kills this vampire.

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