CAMPAIGN 2004
URL:http://www.opinionjournal.com/extra/?id=110004505
Forward to the Past
Dems' new motto: "Just wait till last year!"
BY DICK MORRIS
Sunday, January 4, 2004 12:01 a.m. EST
The Democratic Party lament after it loses the presidential election may be: "Wait till last year."
In 2003, the Democrats racked up an impressive series of gains: President Bush's failed prediction that weapons of mass destruction would be found in Iraq; the daily drip of deaths in Baghdad; the economy stalled and sank; and the president made no progress in passing his domestic agenda.
But at year's close, the president seemed to turn his fortunes around. Economic growth skipped forward at an extraordinary 8.2% in the third quarter. He passed a prescription drug benefit that robbed the Democrats of their best issue, just as Bill Clinton stole the GOP's thunder in signing welfare-reform legislation. The president made progress toward Iraqizing the war by training Iraqi troops and cops.
And he got Saddam!
All this augers well for the administration's '04 fortunes. If they can continue economic expansion and begin to bring troops home from Iraq, the 2003-04 cycle may come to resemble the 1971-72 Nixon experience. In 1971, George McGovern, steamrolling his way to the Democratic nomination seemed unstoppable. Impelled by frustration with Vietnam and catalyzed by Nixon's escalation of the conflict, he seemed to have the issue to bring the president down. But by 1972, troops were on their way home and Henry Kissinger was announcing that "peace is at hand."
Finally, there is the Howard Dean factor. Mr. Dean is God's reward to Mr. Bush for doing the right thing in the war on terror. His consistent opposition to the war in Iraq makes him the beau ideal of the militant Democratic left. But his strong position on this issue makes him unacceptable to the vast bulk of voters, particularly if American casualties are winding down.
On the other hand, Mr. Dean could be animated to a second life if Mr. Bush decides to be Lyndon Johnson instead of Richard Nixon and refuses to Iraqize the war further, keeping our troops in harm's way in Iraq. If Mr. Bush becomes distracted by the task of "nation building" and seeks to spend his political capital building a new Iraq, he may lose the opportunity to spend four more years doing much of anything.
The final factor that will hurt Mr. Dean is his support of gay civil unions. As the campaign unfolds, the difference between "civil union" and marriage will become less and less apparent to voters. Unable to hide behind euphemisms, the Dean position will be on stark display.
A recent public opinion survey indicated that voters who regularly attended religious services voted Republican by 2 to 1 while those who did not voted Democrat by the same margin. (About half of America regularly goes to services.) Gay marriage brings out the most extreme cultural polarization of any of the right/left "values" issues. The Massachusetts decision finding state constitutional grounds for overruling the legislature and allowing gay marriage will put the issue squarely on the table for the 2004 election.
So what have the Democrats got left to run on? The recession that used to be? The Iraq War and American casualties that, hopefully, will use to have been? Prescription drug benefits that didn't use to be available?
Not a good agenda for the party that used to be a contender.
Mr. Morris, a former adviser to President Clinton, is author of "Off With Their Heads" (Regan, 2003). |
