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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis

SOXX 312.18

-0.2%

Dec 9 4:00 PM EST

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To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (12910)	1/4/2004 11:01:04 PM
From: Sarmad Y. Hermiz	Read Replies (1) of 95546

>> The falling dollar is not necessarily a negative. Briefing.com thinks the falling dollar is "much ado about nothing" and may turn out to be a net positive. Don, They're nuts. And wrong, too. The causes of the dollar's fall will bring higher interest rates, higher energy prices. Higher imported goods prices. And higher inflation. I don't think today's P/E's can stand if investors could get 6% on insured certificates of deposit. Re jitters. Actually, yes. I'm getting jittery. My account was up approx 80% last year. I've gained and lost similar amounts several times in the past few years. But this time I'd like to keep it. I really thought the high in the nasdaq would correspond to highs in electronics stocks. Unfortunately my stocks had peaked ahead of nasdaq, then declined. I'm hoping WDC and LSI will catch up as nasdaq gets its last hurrah. The memory of Fed rates hike is not from 17 years ago. It is from Feb '94 when the Fed hiked from 3.00% to 3.25. It was a downer all year in both stocks and bonds. I think we had an excellent ride for a year. However it will be all for naught if allowed to evaporate. With all that, I do expect that all concerned will make the right sort of noises to push stocks prices a little higher. How high and when ? That's the question. Just my thoughts. You know I had been very positive on stocks for over a year. But I'm now just trying to pick an exit point. My outlook continues to be that financial institutions pump up stocks to lure in lay investors. Then distribute stocks to them. Then prices drop (or sometimes collapse). I think we're getting close to the distribution point. For me, this view will be confirmed when we see increase in IPO's. That's the ultimate distribution. Sarmad

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