Hi Jay,
I think it all might go 'flame out' around March, and so am will to wait until June...
I'm not so sure. I was in the camp that was thinking "bullish until the elections, and then look out below", but since nearly everyone I know, including so-called "stock gurus" (whom I don't know) are now espousing that very same scenario, I just don't think things will go that way.
That leaves 2 options open.
The first choice is that the markets retrace (or collapse) before the elections as everyone rushes to the exits to beat the October/November rush, which seems highly unlikely to me given the apparent recovery in the American economy.
The second choice is that stock prices inflate and reinflate, again and over again, reaching bubble proportions in some sectors/industries. This scenario of inflated assets would be in keeping with the Fed's stated policies of inflating US assets, and would again make US$ denominated investments attractive to foreign investors.
Looking at historical performances of the US$ and the equity/bond markets, today's numbers are looking somewhat similar to the end of 1994 (or the beginning of 1995). Put another way, things look "pre-bubblish" to me, if I can coin a new word/phrase.
So, I think going long (with extreme caution) seems to be the path with the shining star above it.
As always, I could be wrong, and this is just my opinion.
Hope things are prosperous for you in 2004...
KJC |
