PB, I can't conceive any scenario mentally which would trigger an "abrupt" about face via our Fed Reserve which would halt the PoG's rally, keying in part off of the dollar's steep and continuing descent.
The FR is not keen on "abrupt" moves.
As I've said before, there are 4 interest rate phases, starting at any point of the cycle where one becomes aware of this truth:
1) Interest rates falling
2) Interest rates (having already fallen,) stabilizing and doing nothing for a period of time.
3) Interest rates Rising
4) Interest rates (having already risen,) stabilizing and doing nothing for a period of time.
In the above litany, we are most definitely in "#2" articulation.
I propose, PB, that prior to there being a #3, we will observe that rising "interest rates pressure" has already occured --in a stealth manner--measured by any number of metrics, These shifts will change, much like the tempo of "paddling of little duck feet below the water's surface" changes as the economy is either propelled or falters.
The FR is REACTIVE, not proactive. Hasn't been proactive since Volker wrested control of FR from good old Arthur Burns. GS among others will trumpet any shift prior to it actually being announced. Bernake, for example, will suddenly take ill and be forced by his doctors to submit to a physical, etc.<grin> |
