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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory
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To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (4459)1/6/2004 9:04:53 AM
From: Wyätt Gwyön  Read Replies (2) of 110194
 
he would pass the lie detector test as long as he kept his mind focused on the YoY price change of 156,000 WalMart SKUs. that's a very broad basket of goods showing deflation.

it is not a good sign for inflationists that end prices are deflationary, and that real income growth is nonexistent for the longest period ever in a recovery. rising prices without rising incomes will eventually be hit by falling demand. and the WalMart SKUs are already falling, so demand might crash. this is on Greenspan's mind w/r/t the housing bubble. the places where inflation undeniably exists--housing, commodities, could see a rapid reversal.

if this were to happen, the WMT SKUs could be considered a leading indicator of deflation. of course, the obverse could be true as well.
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