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Politics : Stockman Scott's Political Debate Porch
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To: stockman_scott who wrote (34333)1/6/2004 9:23:08 AM
From: Jim Willie CB  Read Replies (2) of 89467
 
the USDollar crisis in exactly on schedule
as I forecasted and laid out in early 2002
20-22 months later, all is occurring closely to expectation

with US mfg base shipped to Asia, no industrial mechanism to stop the US$ decline vicious circle
with US Fed in constant intervention mode, no monetary mechanism to stop the US$ decline vicious circle
trade gap will continue to hemorrhage
poor interest rate differential will continue to fail in attraction

we should get some trade numbers soon
somewhere around high 30's to $40B in a single month
that is a death march in capital flow, which is the most recent urgent death knell signal overlooked

we now have the following at multi-year highs:
gold
silver
copper
jyen
euro
bpound sterling
soybeans

with crude oil and natgas pushing high levels

the reflation effort is a near total failure
they just havent realized that yet
the Greenspasm Gambit is to inflate inflate inflate, with the hope of reducing debts and restoring pricing power
so far no evidence of success, although some deceptive claims in support
I expect the LT interest rate picture to deteriorate soon, which will contradict the Gambit success claims

/ jim

p.s. as for trips, might do a Sunday River Maine ski trip in about one month
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