Has Heinz gone off the deep end?
From Heinz
a war involving China will eventually be unavoidable. 2 major reasons: 1. resources - the world is running out of oil, and there will be war over what's left. 2. China's 'one child' policy has led to 150 million young men being born that can not find a spouse - they either will create social upheaval in China, or be fed to Ares. one guess what China's leaders will opt for.
timing: not as uncertain as one would think. what to look for is a crisis in world trade - i.e., a vast reduction in world trade just as the one that happened shortly before WW2. trade is THE major factor inhibiting war - but as soon as the current boomlet ends, we may get a really nasty global recession cum currency crisis. protectionism is already on the rise, and that will intensify once the world goes back into synchronized economic decline. the protectionists ( a surprising number of whom can actually be found right here, on kitco ) would never admit it, but if, or rather when, they get their wish, it will hasten the arrival of war.
as soon as the above pre-conditions ( i.e., global recssion, and a plunge in global trade ) exist, look for a 'trigger incident', some 'provocation' on the part of Taiwan for instance, or a civil war beginning in one of the oil-rich Central Asian nations bordering, or close to China. that will mark the beginning.
note that war is a typical supercycle bear market phenomenon. |
