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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory
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To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (4486)1/6/2004 3:07:31 PM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu  Read Replies (2) of 110194
 
Jim, if you read what you posted you will notice that the writer actually writes the same I was posting on this tread for the last two weeks.

Moreover, although the Euro has advanced against the dollar like a slingshot over the past year or so, we need to remember that fundamentals in Euro land aren't exactly wildly positive. In our eyes, the Euro has been a default currency choice, not a proactive one. In reality, large pools of global capital really have only three choices at the moment - the USD, the Euro and the Yen. The acid in our stomachs are reminding us that the paired short dollar and long Euro or gold trades are getting a bit crowded. Especially given that foreign central banks have accelerated Treasury purchases significantly over the last year. The downward momentum in the dollar and the upward momentum in the Euro could be reversed at any time ahead on a purely technical basis.

And the potential for unwinding of many a short dollar position could easily cause a nice pop in the dollar over any short term period. As of last week, the very large commercial futures traders were significantly short foreign currencies such as the Euro and Yen. They are clearly betting on a dollar rally.
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