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Strategies & Market Trends : Z Best Place to Talk Stocks

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To: DanZ who wrote (50367)	1/6/2004 7:14:33 PM
From: E.J. Neitz Jr	Read Replies (2) of 53068

Goldman Sachs Comment on Semi and Semi Equipment I think this comment is important because GS was months ahead of any other research source in predicting the start and magnitude of the semi rebound. I see this comment as a prelude to a sector downgrade in a few months, most likely around May-July. Their comment from this evening: GS US SEMI EQUIP 4Q PREVIEW: RAISING ESTIMATES BUT STOCK RALLY IN FINAL STAGES Summary: Ahead of the upcoming quarterly reporting season we are raising our CY2004 EPS estimates for the majority of the companies under our coverage on margin expansion but we believe that the stock rally is in its final stages as the industry approaches normalized levels of cash flow (which we define as AMAT at 15% EBITDA margins). We expect 4Q sequential order growth of approximately 25% and we expect the semi equipment companies to generally provide 1Q sequential order growth guidance of approximately 15% - 20%. While we believe that it is too late in the stock cycle to be overly aggressive on the stocks, our favorite names remain Applied Materials, Novellus Systems, and AEIS (all rated OP/A).

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