may to july seems about right for the total sector, ahead of the traditional summer swoon, as many of these companies are now getting closer to fully pricing in the "good times" in the chip sector, whereas the sector is always cyclical, a fact people forgot when the stocks reached the outlandish valuations right after y2k, when suddenly there weren't going to be any more cycles in technology (yeah right)
i think this sector, like the whole market, is now a case of researching individual names rather than just buying a sector ETF or the most popular, well known stocks, and holding on for nice gains like 2003....i don't think we are headed for a fall like what happened after y2k, as we are nowhere near those crazy valuations, but certainly the "easy money" has been made, and i think that the stocks which have just been rising with the tide without fundamental justification are going to have a hard time moving a lot higher (for those who like to short, ISSI is a wild boom and bust stock, i wish i had a history of their estimates to compare to the last time it was flying high like this...they report next monday, so their guidance will be interesting to see...they are just barely getting into the green now, and the estimates are all rosy now, but at the first slip....timberrr as the bears like to say <g>)
how far ahead of the upturn did GS start making comments 180 degrees opposite of these comments, such as "we are taking our numbers down but we think the worst is over in terms of stock price," or something similar to that? if you have that kind of info, it would be interesting to see how much time passed between their first optimistic comments and the actual turn in the SOX, in october of 2002 |
