SI
SI
discoversearch

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor.  We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community.  If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.
Strategies & Market Trends : Z Best Place to Talk Stocks
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  
To: E.J. Neitz Jr who wrote (50377)1/6/2004 11:04:45 PM
From: BWAC  Read Replies (2) of 53068
 
I still think they have at least 50 to 100% more upside, if the earnings come in as expected and then some. It will be a bumpy, volatile, and damaging to those who are caught wrong type upside. Probably will have a 15% up day across the semi equip sector favorites before it is over. We should see AMAT for example have a quarter that would translate into a $1 EPS run rate. Then we should see the brokers rationalizing that $1 rate into $1.50 the next year estimates and assigning a 30PE on peak cycle earnings which will never end. That gets the price to $40plus and then the pile in crowd will be all in, and buying every dip as they discuss why AMAT is wrongly headed back to a 10 trailing PE even though the business outlook is so bright according to the analysts.

Actually downgrades after the current round of earnings wouldn't surprise me. It will create the buying opportunity for the above setup.

Then the whole cycle repeats itself. AMAT goes back to breakeven, everybody frets over the $15 price being overvalued. And when the doom gets thickest AMAT doubles for no apparent reason as the semi cycle begins anew.

Average yearly earnings for AMAT over the last big cycle 1997 to 2002 was 55 cents. That inculdes negative years and a $2 year.
Report TOU ViolationShare This Post
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  

HomeMailHotSubjectMarksPeopleMarksKeepersSettings
Terms Of UseContact UsCopyright/IP PolicyPrivacy PolicyAbout UsFAQAdvertise on SI
© 2025 Knight Sac Media.  Data provided by Twelve Data, Alpha Vantage, and CityFALCON News