Potential double top forming on $HUI and NEM?
$hui
stockcharts.com[h,a]daclyiay[dc][pb50!b200!c200!c50!c13!c21!f][vc60][iub14!la8,17,9!ll14][J11192336,Y]&pref=G
NEM
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A few other factors to consider:
1) Ugly candlestick on gold today
2) US Dollar getting close to levels where we could at least expect an oversold bounce
3) Gold hit it's initial objective from it's cup-n-handle breakout of $340 (340-250) add 90+340=430. Also, pennant formation from Jan 2003 with breakout at 365 meassures to $430 as well.
4) Broad market and gold have been rallying together now for 6+ months. I don't think that kind of action is sustainable LT. I suspect that the broad market is ready to breakdown soon and when that happens I think gold will follow (mostly to flush the non-believers).
That said LT I expect gold and gold shares to still go higher, but like many I expect a healthy correction at any time here.
Still holding NXG as it has finally broken out on heavy volume and it bucked the overall trend here. It's value relative to it's mid cap peers is very compelling, but I'm somewhat worried if NEM doesn't break 50 in the next 1-2 weeks.
I see two potential scenarios near term. #1, we correct right here going back to HUI 175 to 185ish (over 3-6 months). #2, HUI breaks out making new highs before correcting back to 185 to 220 region.
The next week is going to be very telling. A NEM close sub $47 would be worrisome here and a close below $45 would set up for a scenario #1 with the broad market following/or leading in close tandem.
Hoping the party continues a bit longer to allow NXG to hit it's near term target of $3+ US. 7 times normal volume on Can. side yesterday and 9x today. Maybe something is up merger wise. I like that fact the other than myself there was only 1 post on NXG on SI today and 1 on I-Hub even though it hit a new 52 week high and was the one of few golds of it's size to buck the downtrend today.
My gut says the market will continue it's overall trend higher at least for a few more weeks so gold will follow, but I don't like the technical action today one bit. |
