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Technology Stocks : General Lithography

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To: LLCF who wrote (535)	8/13/1997 8:29:00 PM
From: Andrew Vance	of 1305

ASMLF is just a stepper company and SVGI deals in steppers, coaters, developers, diffusion, and a few other arenas. If the Micrascan takes off (as mentioned by others), it could generate upwards of over $1.25 billion in Revenue ($7 million x 200 systems). I do not know how to put it more politely but the early Micrascans had a horrid past (at one time it was an IBM and Sematech installed base, I think). It is tough to overcome previous trials and issues since most lithographers have long memories. However, it did not stop ASMLF from being successful even with its series 5000 lens issues that were quietly kept under wraps. The ASMLF DUV system is solid and will compete well against Nikon and Canon. Keep in mind that I still believe there are patent issues as yet unresolved. As far as getting more realistic numbers for throughput, I know of only a few ways to do this. Call someone who has installed these pieces of equipment and discuss throughput and the conditions under which they measured it. Or go to the annual USER's conferences and get a few people together over drinks and discuss throughput. Once they explain the conditions, you can create your own working model. I can't remeber the name of the company (I think IDC) but the guys that put together the COO model software have the closest thing to a good working model IF you input the right data. Bottom line, word of mouth is the only real way to get the answers we are looking for. It's like buying a used car. Do you listen to what the Used Car Dealer tells you or do you try to contact the previous owner for the best information<GGG>. Actually neither one will give you the whole story but between them you get a good idea. Andrew

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