New Texas Map Could Affect National Politics
Wednesday, January 07, 2004
URL:http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,107678,00.html
WASHINGTON — A federal appeals panel has approved the redistricting map (search) drawn by Texas Republicans, and unless the Supreme Court takes up an appeal, the new borders could impact not just the state delegation in Congress but electoral politics on a national scale.
The redrawing of the map, encouraged by House Majority Leader Tom DeLay (search), angered Democrats in the state Legislature so much that on two occasions, lawmakers fled the state in attempts to halt it.
Over time, protests by the renegade Democrats fizzled, and Republicans were able to push through the map. Democrats failed to convince lawmakers in a December trial that the map violated the Voting Rights Act (search) by denying Hispanics and blacks the right to vote for a candidate of their choosing.
The new map has already affected the state delegation, and is likely to solidify Republican control of Capitol Hill.
Prior to the court ruling on Tuesday, the 17-15 Democratic edge in the Texas delegation to the U.S. House had dwindled to an even split after Rep. Ralph Hall (search), the 80-year-old, 12-term lawmaker from the northeast corner of the state, switched parties last week and became a Republican.
Republicans say the new map could give them a 22-10 advantage in the next Congress, overturning six Democratic incumbents, an extremely unusual upheaval.
"That's probably more House seats than will really be up for grabs in terms of a margin that either house can pick up. So that's a big, big thing," said campaign analyst Ron Faucheux. "Anywhere you can get this kind of an advantage with reapportionment has big, big national political implications."
When the House returns to work later this month, Republicans will hold a 23-vote advantage over Democrats. Though no one is predicting how the November elections will turn out, some experts say the GOP margin could grow to 30 votes, thanks in large part to redistricting that shapes the redrawn districts in a way to make them more competitive for Republicans, and even for some Democratic primary challengers.
Among the Democrats whose re-elections are in danger is 13-term Rep. Martin Frost of the Dallas-Ft. Worth area. He has said he may run in one of four new districts.
"In any of these districts, I would expect a very competitive, very expensive campaign for re-election," Frost said.
Also facing new boundaries are Reps. Chet Edwards, a seven-term lawmaker; Charlie Stenholm, who is serving his 13th term; Lloyd Doggett, now in his fifth term; Max Sandlin, chief deputy whip and a four-term representative; and Jim Turner, in his fourth term and considered a conservative Democrat. Freshman Chris Bell may also find himself with a fight on his hands, however, that would most likely come from a black Democrat in his now more African-American district in Houston.
The candidates have until Jan. 16 to decide where they will file their candidacy papers.
The Supreme Court has not stated whether it will review the case, but veteran Democratic strategist Bob Beckel believes that even if the high court gets involved, it probably will not change things much.
"I suspect they'll look at it and I suspect that they may order a redrawing of some of the districts, but in essence, the Democrats are going to lose seats in Texas, simple as that," he said.
The court's ordering of a new drawing of the map can only happen under certain circumstances — when the Texas Constitution allows it and when one party controls the governor's seat as well as both chambers of the state Legislature. Those conditions currently exist in Texas.
Fox News' Brian Wilson contributed to this report. |
